Lubricants Market Morning Report 20260429

International Crude Oil & Base Oil Prices

• Brent Crude: 105.33 US dollars per barrel (up 0.25%); WTI Crude: 94.4 US dollars per barrel (down 1.51%)

• Persistent tensions in the Middle East and the looming risk of a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin oil prices. Brent crude remains volatile at a high level above 100 US dollars per barrel.

• China saw the first price cut for refined oil products in 2026 on April 21, with No.92 gasoline reduced by 0.44 yuan per litre. However, the latest pricing cycle has turned positive, and a price hike of 160-210 yuan per tonne is expected to take effect on May 8.

• Base oil prices stay elevated alongside crude oil. China’s base oil production capacity stands at 16.72 million tonnes per annum, with an output of 8.774 million tonnes and apparent consumption of 10.368 million tonnes, resulting in a notable supply-demand gap.

Price Hikes by Major Brands

Core drivers of price hikes: Escalating Middle East tensions have tightened crude oil supply, pushing up costs of base oils, additives and packaging materials across the board. Raw material costs kept rising after the first round of price hikes in April, forcing major brands to implement second increases.

Major Corporate Updates

 Shell

• Completed the acquisition of Canada’s ARC Resources for 13.6 billion US dollars, the company’s largest merger and acquisition in a decade. The deal adds 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to its output and consolidates its long-term reserves.

• Unveiled the Triple 10 Challenge ultra-fast charging concept car equipped with immersion liquid cooling technology, stepping up layout in the new energy sector.

• Invested 20 billion US dollars in the Bonga Southwest Oilfield in Nigeria to strengthen its strategic presence in Africa.

Dongfeng Castrol

• Adopted a full brand strategy consulting plan to restructure brand architecture and launch premium diesel engine oil product lines, targeting the multi-billion-yuan lubricant market for Dongfeng commercial vehicles.

Kunlun Lubricants

• • Attended CHINAPLAS 2026, showcasing its full lineup of rubber & plastic lubricants and high-end eco-friendly lubrication technologies.

Ruifeng New Materials

• Established a joint venture, Ruifeng Farabi Lubricant Additives Co., Ltd., with Saudi Arabia’s Farabi Group, holding a 60% stake. A new production base will be built to serve markets across the Middle East, Africa and India.

Regional Market Dynamics

Russia

• A temporary ban on gasoline exports took effect on April 1 and will remain in place until July 31 to mitigate market volatility triggered by conflicts in the Middle East.

• Russia’s daily exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached 7.13 million barrels in March, up 4.7% month-on-month, generating export revenue of 19.04 billion US dollars. Seaborne crude shipments to Asia continued to grow.

Singapore & Southeast Asia

• Amid Middle East conflicts, Singapore’s imports of Russian fuel oil in April more than doubled the monthly average of 2025, hitting a record high for a single month.

• Fuel supplies worldwide are converging on Singapore, leaving Europe facing tight supply in the coming weeks.

India & South Asia

• India lifted import duties on 40 categories of petrochemical, plastic and industrial raw materials from April 2 to June 30, creating a favourable window for lubricant raw material imports.

• India’s trade deficit widened to 20.88 billion US dollars in February. With over 80% reliance on imported crude oil, surging international oil prices have further strained its trade balance.

• China remains India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volume reaching 137.1 billion US dollars.

Africa

• African countries have ramped up imports of Russian petroleum products: diesel imports rose from 800,000 tonnes to 1 million tonnes, while imports of gasoline and naphtha increased to 200,000 tonnes.

• Russia’s Energy Ministry plans to launch joint energy projects in Africa to boost local supply. Meanwhile, African nations are accelerating the development of renewable energy.

Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

1. Price hikes will continue. The second round of price adjustments by Shell, Mobil and Chevron will take effect in mid-May. Downstream buyers are advised to secure purchases in advance.

2. India’s duty-free import policy valid until June 30 presents a strategic opportunity to expand business in South Asia. It is recommended to explore relevant export opportunities.

3. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain the biggest uncertainty. Brent crude staying above 100 US dollars per barrel will keep cost pressures on base oils intact.

4. Two major lubricant exhibitions will kick off in Shanghai in June, serving as key platforms for industry networking and trend analysis.

5. Russia’s gasoline export ban will last until July 31. With more Russian oil flowing eastward, the supply landscape across the Asia-Pacific region is undergoing profound changes.