Lubricants Market Morning Report20260625

Global Market Trends

International oil prices tumbled sharply on the 24th, with WTI breaking below the $70 mark

WTI settled at $70.34 per barrel, a drop of 3.92%, while Brent closed at $73.74 per barrel, down 4.33%, hitting a four-month low.

Mounting expectations of OPEC+ output expansion exacerbated oil price declines

According to Cls.cn, market worries over a shift in OPEC+ production policies have intensified. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index surged to a one-year high, adding downward pressure to oil prices.

EIA forecasts Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in 2026, with supply recovery weighing on prices

WTI is projected to average $53.42 per barrel. Current prices stand far above the projected average, reflecting the fading of short-term geopolitical premiums.

China’s industrial lubricant demand to reach 3.04 million tons in 2026 at an average price of RMB 14,700 per ton

Driven by the advancement of the dual-carbon strategy and upgrades in the equipment manufacturing sector, demand growth is shifting from volume expansion to value creation.

Kunlun Lubricants obtains dual international OEM certifications for the first time, reshaping the competitive landscape of marine oils

Its marine cylinder oil 5040P has passed dual CAT II certifications from a global leading marine engine manufacturer, making it the first domestic brand to secure such qualifications.

Lubricant Industry News

The group standard Recycled Lubricant Base Oil has officially taken effect, accelerating standardization of the recycled oil market

China’s apparent lubricant consumption totals 10 million tons annually, nearly 50% of which is recyclable, forming an industry output value of RMB 50 billion with broad market prospects.

Group standards for comprehensive utilization of waste mineral oils are released, ushering in standardized development of green recycled lubricants

Jointly promoted by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, MIIT and fiscal & taxation authorities, comprehensive support covering market access, standardized production and consumption tax reductions is in place.

Core trends of industrial lubrication technology upgrading in 2026: green development, intelligent solutions and high-performance products

Iterative refining processes for base oils and innovative eco-friendly formulations are core development directions, while three major pain points persist in the machining sector.

South American Market

Brazil: The world’s sixth-largest lubricant market with annual consumption of around 1.23 million tons

Brazil accounts for over half of finished lubricant demand across South America, and rising vehicle ownership fuels market expansion.

Rio Oil & Gas Exhibition to be held in September

Expected to draw 42,000 professional visitors and 540 exhibitors, serving as a vital exchange platform for the South American industry.

African Market

Nigeria: Over 4 million liters of lubricants are illegally imported each year amid tightened government supervision

The Nigerian government continues to ramp up crackdowns on smuggled oil products to standardize market order.

South Africa: Major lubricant distribution hub in Africa with annual demand of approximately 360,000 tons

Benefiting from its superior port resources, South Africa holds a solid market position and radiates all of Southern Africa.

Russian Market

Lukoil Lubricants holds over 40% of Russia’s market share with annual sales exceeding 1.2 million tons

As Russia’s largest integrated lubricant manufacturer, Lukoil covers full lines of automotive and industrial lubricants.

Moscow International Lubricants & Technology Exhibition: A leading industry conference across the CIS

It attracts numerous professional buyers from CIS and Eastern European countries each year, acting as a key gateway to the Russian market.

South Asian Market

India: The world’s fifth-largest lubricant market with an average annual growth rate of 3.7%

Surpassing Japan, India boasts the fastest-growing market in the Asia-Pacific region. Industrial lubricants account for 51% of total lubricant demand.

Power and chemical industries are major downstream consumers of industrial lubricants in India

Rapid manufacturing expansion drives sustained growth in imports of base oils and additives.

Marine Fuel in Malaysia

Global marine fuel market size to reach RMB 1.4353 trillion in 2026

With a CAGR of 7.43%, the IMO net-zero emission framework fuels surging demand for eco-friendly marine lubricants.

Biomass marine fuels gain rapid traction; carbon tax fully covers the shipping industry in 2026

The EU ETS is rolled out in phases, with 100% of shipping carbon emissions subject to regulation starting in 2026, boosting the cost competitiveness of biofuels.

Lubricant Technical Basics

Category B · Technical Article: What are the essential differences between API Group I to Group IV base stocks?

The API classifies base oils into five categories based on sulfur content, saturate content and viscosity index.

• Group I: Solvent-refined; sulfur >0.03%, saturates<90%, viscosity index 80–120, basic performance.

• Group II: Hydrotreated; sulfur<0.03%, saturates=''>90%, viscosity index 80–120, fewer impurities.

• Group III: Hydrocracked & isodewaxed; ultra-low sulfur, viscosity index >120, outstanding low-temperature fluidity and oxidation resistance.

• Group IV: Polyalphaolefin (PAO) synthetic base oil with top-tier overall performance, ideal for premium full-synthetic lubricants.

Category A · Popular Science: Why do oils thicken in winter? How to evaluate low-temperature fluidity?

Lubricants turn viscous or even solidify as temperature drops, a property determined by pour point.

In SAE viscosity grades, the letter W stands for Winter; the smaller the number preceding W, the better the low-temperature fluidity (e.g., 0W maintains fluidity at -35°C). For winter use in northern regions, prioritize multi-grade oils marked with both W and non-W grades and check the pour point indicator.